Cleantech Worst Case Situations For 2024: Political Violence & Civil Warfare


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As we head into 2024, there’s quite a lot of purpose to be each cautious and optimistic. Over the previous couple of days, I’ve lined quite a lot of causes to be optimistic, however I needed to show my consideration to some very huge and unhealthy issues to be careful for in 2024. The thought right here isn’t to feed doomscrollers, however as a substitute to provide folks a heads up and hopefully give you some good options to those unlikely outcomes.

I already lined one very unhealthy pure factor that would occur: photo voltaic storms. Subsequent, I’m going to show my consideration to a artifical catastrophe that would occur in the USA and set clear applied sciences again for many years.

Election Violence Is Nothing New, However We Haven’t Seen It In A Whereas

As we strategy the 2024 election, we’re seeing quite a lot of unprecedented issues occur, and different unhealthy issues that we haven’t seen in over 100 years.

Disputed elections are nothing new, after all. People have been arguing over elections because the 1770s. The largest nasty election was in 1860, with states seceding and a civil conflict beginning over the outcomes, which exacerbated quite a lot of present tensions over huge points, particularly slavery.

Whereas highschool historical past teaches us that the civil conflict had led to 1864, 1865, or 1866, it actually didn’t, and the South went right into a state of insurgency not not like Afghanistan or Iraq. In some methods, the give up at Appomattox Courthouse was akin to George W. Bush’s “Mission Completed” second, with an enemy army crushed whereas the conflict itself was removed from truly over.

Within the midst of this partisan violence, there was one other significantly ugly election in 1876 that resulted in no person securing sufficient undisputed electoral votes to win. Going through the potential of armed teams attacking Washington, DC, a compromise was struck that each gave them them the candidate they needed and ended the federal army occupation of southern states.

Thus, in some key methods, the South actually received the civil conflict in 1877 in the identical manner the Taliban received the conflict in 2021. They weren’t allowed to reintroduce slavery, however they did disenfranchise the black inhabitants, manipulate ongoing elections, and deprive folks of their human rights for many years after. Lynchmobs and different acts of terror saved former slaves and their descendants in a state not significantly better than slavery for nearly 90 years.

Whereas it got here at the price of repression and terror within the South, subsequent presidential elections didn’t have additional civil conflict related to them. We’ve solely seen a disagreement and never any precise wars over elections for the twentieth and early twenty first century. Even the 2000 election that went all the best way to the Supreme Courtroom didn’t end in warfare, regardless of many individuals feeling just like the election was stolen.

As we all know, the lengthy streak of comparatively peaceable elections ended with the 2020 election. Trump disputed the outcomes, a lot of his followers believed him, and a riot on the Capitol was geared toward attempting to stop certification of the electoral votes, and thus the ultimate step in electing Joe Biden.

An Unsure Future

The massive query at this level is whether or not we’re seeing a rising development towards extra political violence or simply an uptick with a peak on January 6, 2021.

On the one hand, there was an extended streak of peaceable elections. For those who had requested me about prospects for election violence in 2019, I in all probability would have stated that it was most unlikely. There have been tensions, little doubt, and even violence occurring in the USA, however the lengthy historical past of peaceable elections was a strong development.

2020 upended every part, although. Protests and riots over police brutality and murders, the abandonment and burning of a police station, the institution of a commune-like “autonomous zone” in Seattle (full with heavily-armed guards who killed), violence in Portland that continued properly into 2021, the closing of a Chinese language consulate that could have been linked to all of this, riots exterior of the White Home, after which the contested election and Capitol riot all make it fairly clear that the streak of peace might be over.

2021, 2022 and 2023 haven’t confirmed to us that it’s over, both. Not solely has violent rhetoric continued to worsen, however terror assaults have continued. For instance, a Neo-Nazi shot up a grocery retailer in Buffalo New York, specificially concentrating on black folks and attempting to fire up a race conflict, with the names of previous violent racist shooters written on his weapons. This 12 months, a transgender man concentrating on “white privlages” and “little crackers” shot up a Christian college with issues written on the homicide weapons, exhibiting us that violence from the left additionally continues with the violence of others in thoughts.

Whereas psychological sickness definitely performs a job in these terror assaults and plenty of others, we’d be fools to not see it as political violence persevering with.

It’s additionally vital to notice that surveys present assist for political violence rising in the USA. Whereas assist for it’s greater the additional proper you go on the political spectrum, assist for violence has risen throughout the board. Assist for conspiracy theories and fears about the way forward for democratic programs in the USA are additionally on the rise.

The 2024 Election Isn’t Cooling Off

It looks as if the nearer we get to the 2024 election, the crazier the rhetoric will get. When information that Donald Trump needed to make use of the army in opposition to People if he will get into workplace got here out, which adopted a lot hand-wringing over Mission 2025 (together with a chunk by me), Trump was requested point-blank whether or not he needed to be a dictator. He not solely didn’t deny it, however supported the concept, even when solely in a restricted vogue.

It will get worse in some methods. With Trump faraway from the poll in two states (with implementation delayed pending a Supreme Courtroom ruling), secretaries of state are getting demise threats. Together with accusations of election interference by way of prosecutions of Trump, this leaves an enormous a part of the MAGA base feeling like civil conflict is important to cease Democrats from stealing the election.

Whereas we are able to’t predict whether or not we’ll see violence, a coup, or a civil conflict, I can confidently say that the specter of such issues is greater than it has ever been.

The Influence On Cleantech

As I discussed in a earlier article, the actions in opposition to clear applied sciences would definitely be a part of any dictatorial “day one” beneath a reminted President Trump. “Drill, drill, drill!” means extra than simply upping oil manufacturing, with any motion that may be taken in opposition to Inflation Discount Act and the Infrastructure Invoice assured to occur.

However, since I wrote that piece, Trump has stated that he needs to be a dictator as wanted to implement “drill, drill, drill!”.  So, we’d doubtless see unlawful issues carried out to cease EV tax credit, the development of charging stations, sponsored warmth pumps, and all the different cleantech progress that has been made. California’s clear air waiver can be gone, come what may.

Need to problem all of these issues in court docket? Haha, nope. Trump owns the court docket. Need to protest? Troops are going to kettle your group and drive it off the road, otherwise you’ll be pushed right into a van and brought to detention by unknown folks. This time they won’t let anybody know the place the kidnapped had been taken.

It additionally could also be a mistake to assume we are able to head all this off on the poll field. It was no miracle or pure final result of a democratic system that the election wasn’t stolen. Some folks labored exhausting behind the scenes for years to guard it from precisely the risk it confronted. However, since 2020 and 2021, Trump’s staff has had years to study from previous failures and give you a greater plan. Many individuals contemplating utilizing violence to have an effect on the result have realized from the failure to cease the electoral vote rely on January sixth. Folks in command of counting votes in some states are actively attempting to have an effect on the result, too.

It’s going to take severe motion each now, throughout, and after the election to maintain it reputable and truthful. If it’s misplaced, it’s going to take some severe efforts to guard clear applied sciences from the whooping they’d obtain from a Trump unconstrained by Constitutional limits and with a want for us to “ROT IN HELL”.

For those who’re not working towards preventing this, you’d higher begin getting energetic on Tuesday.


Featured Picture By Tyler Merbler, CC BY 2.0 License.

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