Tesla Autopilot Crash Knowledge Reveals Little To No Enchancment For 2023

Tesla just lately launched a brand new replace to its Automobile Security Report, revealing information for all 4 quarters of 2023.

The voluntarily printed quarterly reviews embrace the variety of miles pushed per accident registered when utilizing Autopilot expertise, not utilizing Autopilot expertise, and the U.S. common (the newest information obtainable from NHTSA and FHWA for calendar 12 months 2022).

The information offers us glimpses of how Autopilot improves automobile security, however it has some limitations (extra on that on the backside of this submit) as a result of methodology. For instance, Tesla counts all accidents, whatever the trigger, even though greater than 35 % of all Autopilot crashes happen when the Tesla automobile is rear-ended by one other automobile, the corporate says.

In line with Tesla, the variety of miles pushed per accident registered in 2023, when utilizing Autopilot expertise, diverse from 5.18 to six.18 million miles pushed.

The outcomes are blended—21% worse than a 12 months in the past in Q1, 21% higher in Q2, 6% worse in Q3 and 11% higher in This fall. In different phrases, we will not actually say that there’s a clear, constant, and noticeable enchancment.

With out utilizing Autopilot expertise, Tesla automobiles statistically observe extra accidents—from 1.00 to 1.52 million miles pushed per accident registered.

Not solely that, the outcomes had been worse than in 2022 in every of the 4 quarters of 2023 (Q1 down 9%, Q2 down 5%, Q3 down 11%, and This fall down 29% year-over-year).

There’s a vital distinction between the 2 modes of driving (with or with out Autopilot) and the distinction continues to extend. Nevertheless, we should observe that the 2 information units shouldn’t be in contrast towards one another, other than offering us with some thought of the numbers.

It is necessary to notice that the outcomes are comparable solely inside a selected class (Autopilot or with out Autopilot), not between the classes because the enter information is likely to be extensively totally different (like easy freeway driving or complicated metropolis driving). In different phrases, we are able to solely see whether or not the lively security techniques are enhancing over time (and it is also solely a tough comparability), however we will not examine Autopilot to non-Autopilot driving.

We assume that the right use of Autopilot improves security, however Tesla’s report doesn’t permit us to guage the distinction.

Under we connected a full chart with all numbers offered by the producer plus NHTSA and FHWA information in regards to the common distance between an car crash in the US.

The distinction is fairly enormous, however as soon as once more, we should not examine the numbers immediately. The U.S. common features a a lot older automobile fleet (with fewer security techniques), which alone is a giant issue. The U.S. common is 0.670 million miles (as of 2022 since there is no such thing as a information for 2023 but).

Tesla has its personal model of the chart:

Necessary components:

• information for every setting is likely to be collected at totally different driving eventualities (like easy freeway driving or complicated metropolis driving), which makes the outcomes incomparable between the classes
• outcomes is likely to be affected by numerous components, together with seasonality (diminished daylight, climate circumstances), much less driving throughout lockdown
• NHTSA and FHWA common for the U.S. (up to date not often) consists of all vehicles, additionally outdated
• Tesla’s information in regards to the methodology of registering accidents:
  “We acquire the quantity of miles traveled by every automobile with Autopilot lively or in guide driving, primarily based on obtainable information we obtain from the fleet, and accomplish that with out figuring out particular automobiles to guard privateness. We additionally obtain a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which can embrace information about whether or not Autopilot was lively on the time of affect. To make sure our statistics are conservative, we rely any crash during which Autopilot was deactivated inside 5 seconds earlier than affect, and we rely all crashes during which the incident alert indicated an airbag or different lively restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics should not primarily based on pattern information units or estimates.) In apply, this correlates to just about any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, relying on the crash forces generated. We don’t differentiate primarily based on the kind of crash or fault (For instance, greater than 35% of all Autopilot crashes happen when the Tesla automobile is rear-ended by one other automobile). On this means, we’re assured that the statistics we share unquestionably present the advantages of Autopilot.”
• assuming the methodology was not modified, we are able to see how every class improves over time