Arduous Disk Drive Income Historical past From 1957 To In the present day

Hard Disk Drive Revenue History From 1957 To Today


A colleague, Tom Gardner, who has additionally labored within the onerous disk drive trade collaborated with me to place collectively a historical past of onerous disk drive trade revenues and shipments for the reason that invention of digital HDDs by IBM in 1956.

Over the 67-year historical past of HDDs there are a number of individuals who have tracked the shipments and income of the trade. The primary supply of HDD trade income was Montgomery Phister, who’s e-book on Information Processing Know-how and Economics is the supply of our earliest HDD income estimates from 1957 via 1978. Jim Porter, writer of the Disk/Pattern Experiences started monitoring the HDD trade in 1976 till 1998.

Gartner, IDC TrendFocus and Peripheral Analysis (and Coughlin Associates) additionally coated the HDD trade. We had some trade information from Gartner and TrendFocus from 1995 via 2017. Information from 2018 via 2022 was from quarterly experiences from Seagate, Western Digital and Toshiba (the remaining HDD firms since 2013).

The chart under exhibits all of those information sources collectively for HDD trade whole income. We are able to see that there are some variations between the varied sources for trade income over time.

The chart under plots the identical information, however with a logarithmic vertical scale. From these two charts we will see that the yr of peak HDD income was in 2012, seemingly as a result of scarcity of HDDs that yr as a result of influence of the floods in Thailand within the Fall of the prior yr. The height yr for HDD shipments was in 2010 when 651 million items had been shipped.

From 1957 via 2022 10B HDD items had been shipped with whole revenues over the identical interval of over $1 trillion ($1,000B). The height income in 2012 was about $37B and since 2014 the HDD trade whole income has been between $30B and $20B typically trending downward.

On the identical time, apart from the storage recession via a part of 2022 and all of 2023, HDD costs have been typically rising as shipments for legacy enterprise, client and laptop functions have been displaced by SSDs and as high-capacity enterprise HDDs have grown in whole HDD market share. In 2022 HDD whole shipments had been 172 million items and $20.4B. We estimate that unit shipments in 2023 will whole about 127 million items with whole revenues lower than $14B. Whole estimated HDD capability shipments are a bit lower than 900 Exabytes in 2023.

Our expectations are that rising demand for storage for AI and different functions and diminished inventories of storage merchandise from that pandemic at prospects will drive demand for digital storage of every type in 2024. We’re already seeing indicators of a restoration within the NAND flash and SSD market going into 2024 and we count on that HDDs will even see elevated demand on this yr.

The HDD trade skilled income development from its begin in 1956 till a peak in 2012. Since that peak HDD revenues and unit shipments have declined. 2024 projections are for 127M items shipped with trade revenues of lower than $14B and whole storage capability shipments of a bit lower than 900 Exabytes.


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